by VAN HANSEN
Every month for Housing Horizon, I sit down with Joe DiGiambattista, the Principal broker at Go Mortgage Co to cut through the noise and give you the actual numbers behind Canada's housing and mortgage market. The May 2026 episode packed in a lot of data, so here's my written breakdown...
Headline: Canada Is NOT in a Housing Crisis
You would be forgiven for thinking the sky is falling. But according to the national sales-to-new-listing ratio (SNLR, a reliable measure of market balance, Canada sits at approximately 58%, just two percentage points away from a perfectly balanced market. The 40–60% range is balanced; below 40 is a buyer's market, and above 60 is a seller's market).
What that means in plain language is nationally, supply and demand are nearly equal, despite years of pandemic disruption, a 5% rate spike, and an ongoing trade war with the U.S. That's actually a remarkable story of resilience that gets almost no attention.
Where the story diverges is at the city level. Montreal just returned to balanced territory after a stretch as a seller's market. Toronto and Vancouver remain firmly in buyer's market territory but the reason isn't market dysfunction. It's affordability, driven by the same forces that make Manhattan, London, and Tokyo expensive: they are major international destination cities. The government's response of allowing more rental income to qualify for mortgages, and encouraging more dwelling units in existing properties is an attempt to solve that affordability problem structurally.
Inflation is Rising Again — What That Means for Rates
Canada's CPI is expected to jump from 2.4% to 3.1% when the April reading is released on May 19th. That's a meaningful move. We were at 1.8%, climbed to 2.4%, and now appear to be heading to 3.1%. The primary culprit is energy, with year-over-year energy inflation running at approximately 3.9% and a month-over-month spike of 13.1%.
The good news: Joe doesn't expect this to push the Bank of Canada to raise rates at the June 10th announcement. Unemployment and GDP are softening, which provides counterbalancing pressure. The BOC will likely hold, but watch that May 19th number closely.
South of the border, the US Federal Reserve is dealing with more acute inflation (3.8%, up from 2.3% last month), driven by a combination of tariff and energy effects. The Fed has been resisting rate increases despite that pressure, creating an unusual dynamic worth monitoring into the June 10th and June 17th US dates.
Fixed vs. Variable: The Inversion Is Reversing
For the past three years (2023–2025), variable rates sat higher than fixed rates as opposed to historical norms. That's now correcting. Variable rates are sitting around 3.5–3.6%, while five-year fixed rates are in the low 4s (4.19–4.24% best available). And that 60–70 basis point spread is material.
Joe's observation is a 60 bps spread is enough incentive to consider the variable. Especially since variable-rate mortgages typically allow penalty-free conversion to fixed at any time. Some buyers are even taking the variable rate now specifically to qualify for a higher purchase amount, then converting to fixed after closing (since post-closing conversion doesn't require re-qualification).
On the conventional / uninsured side, five-year fixed rates are running 4.59–4.69%, with variable still around 3.7%. The non-income-qualified niche is as low as 1.89%. The caveat: the market is fluid enough right now that a 12-month rate forecast is not reliable. Once things settle, Joe sees the potential for low 3s on variable and mid-to-high 3s on fixed.
Ontario's New HST Rebate — Up to $130,000 Back
The Ontario government has introduced an HST rebate program designed to stimulate new home construction and help buyers enter the market. Here's the structure:
One outstanding question does remain for lenders, namely how will the appraisal be benchmarked? If a property is $1M with a $130K rebate, is the effective purchase price $870K or $1.13M? This has direct implications for mortgage qualification and loan-to-value ratios. Joe is tracking this closely.
The Bottom Line for GTA Buyers Right Now
Joe's clearest advice from this episode is if you are a first-time buyer or currently in a condo or townhouse, the window to move into a freehold property in and around the GTA is right now. Prices are suppressed. Rates are workable. And the moment immigration opens back up, the foreign buyer's ban is lifted, and the US trade situation resolves, demand will snap back, with freehold homes commanding a significant premium.
The data backs this up: March was the first month in six months showing any upward movement in GTA resale activity. And Q2 2026 is already more active than Q1. Whether that's a trend or a blip will become clear by the June episode.
Watch the Full Episode
Catch the complete conversation — including Joe's breakdown of the fixed vs. variable rate chart going back to 2015 and city-by-city SNLR analysis here:
Note: Viewers and readers should consult the presenters or other qualified professionals regarding their specific circumstances. Mortgage rates and economic conditions may change without notice. This video presentation and accompanying article includes conversation and analysis of data available at the time of recording and is provided for information purposes only; it is not financial, accounting, mortgage, investment, environmental or any other advice.
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